The Science of Home Field Advantage: Latest Research and Betting Implications for 2025 Sports Analysis

With the Dolphins, Bucs and Jaguars taking the top three spots, it’s clear that Florida can be a tough place to play in the early part of the year. There are plenty of other stadiums that deal with extreme heat at the beginning part of the season. The Seattle Seahawks were most affected by rain last season, with average monthly rainfall measuring 5.26 inches. The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Breaking things down game by game within a series, we can start to see the trend a little better.

According to the travel theory, home-team advantage should diminish in these cases, but it doesn’t. Another effect, which has received much less attention but is discussed by players, commentators, fans and coaches, has been recently identified; the second leg home advantage (Page & Page, 2007). This effect describes the phenomenon in which, on average, teams are more likely to win a two-stage-knock-out competition when they play at home in the second leg. That is, both teams have a home advantage, but this advantage is significantly greater for the team that plays at home second. I suspected that the reason that the last game of the series may have a smaller home-field advantage is that it is more likely to be a day game, and therefore I suspected that road teams would have less of a disadvantage.

The spread will be adjusted based on the home team’s expected performance, with the home team often being given a small advantage. This advantage is incorporated into the spread to reflect the boost the home team receives. Therefore, you need to weigh other factors, like team strengths, weaknesses, and player matchups. Also, consider the historical performance of the teams in their home and away games.

Then  the data was ranked accordingly, this revealed the teams most impacted by the heat, cold, rain, snow, and wind. Hot weather is a common issue across the NFL, especially when playing in more humid environments like Tampa or Miami. Kevin Roth explains that the hot weather can really take its toll on players towards the end of games, especially as defense as fatigue sets in. Kevin states that light rain or drizzle only minimally impacts NFL games, but heavy rain can have bigger consequences. As the ball gets soaked and slippery, we typically see an increase in turnovers, both from fumbles and interceptions. The passing game is impacted, with passes sailing off-target and wide receivers dropping balls they would normally catch.

Home field advantage can lead to improved performance for certain players, particularly in metrics like on-base percentage and slugging percentage. In recent years, several postseason series have highlighted the unpredictability of home field advantage. For instance, the 2019 World Series saw the visiting team win every game, defying the conventional wisdom surrounding home field advantage. This anomaly reinforces the notion that while home field can provide an edge, it does not guarantee victory.

None of these samples is large enough to generate statistical significance for any individual series game, but it’s plausible that the effect may occur the day before getaway day. If it does, is there something about travel days and off days that played a role? They might give teams the opportunity not only to settle themselves earlier in a different city but also to reset their rotation.

However, many studies showed that crowds would influence the referee’s decision (see Table 4). McCarrick et al. (2021) compared the referee behavior pre and post-COVID-19 lockdown from the 2019–2020 seasons in the 15 different football leagues. It was found that the absence of spectators had a significant impact on the bias of referees. The fouls and yellow cards of away teams are reduced, but the number of red cards was not affected 45. After analyzing the 1468 games, Bryson et al. (2020) also concluded that the referee’s bias towards the away team was more lenient in the absence of spectators, which made the away teams get fewer fouls and yellow cards 46.

International tournaments and Olympic home advantage

• To me, this suggests that chances are that defenses perform worse on the road.
• As some of this may be umpires calling away-team baserunners out on double plays more often, it is useful to check on other aspects of fielding too.
• The easiest way to estimate home field advantage by year is to build a model which accounts for the teams in each game, the scoring efficiences of each team, and the location of the game.
• They also won’t know where to eat or which foods will suit their palate.

Home teams parimatch betting win at different rates in various sports, and theories abound as to why. For example, games like baseball have nonstandard fields, so players may be trained to take advantage of their setup’s quirks. Home-field advantage plays a significant role in the NFL, often influencing the spread.

They hit the ball more, they hit the ball harder, they throw more strikeouts, and they surrender fewer walks. Home teams prevent triples more frequently and record double plays more often. Pitchers pitch complete-game shutouts far more often at home than on the road. Per every 100 games started, the home-team pitcher will throw 1.68 complete-game shutouts and the road-team pitcher will throw 1.18. Home teams win only 54 percent of total games but record 59 percent of the complete-game shutouts.

Other sports like the NFL, NBA, and MLB also demonstrate significant home advantages. Without crowd noise influencing referee decisions, officials showed less bias toward home teams. The psychological pressure that visiting teams normally face was greatly reduced in silent venues.

Psychological and Crowd Influence

This is especially true in the case of inter-continental matches (like World Cups), during which athletes must travel into different time zones, leaving them defenseless against jet-lag. On the other hand, the home team stays in its comfort zone, without having to undergo any disruption in their regular schedules for training, sleep, or anything else. Crowd effect is one of the main causes behind home field advantage in sports. The number of spectators and their behavior can have a huge impact on the performance of athletes. As kickoff approaches, fans can expect a charged atmosphere filled with anticipation.

There existed the only known study to investigate the crowds effect on the HA was in a Italian league matches where spectators were not permitted due to security reasons 10. Home advantage is a well-established phenomenon in soccer, and numerous studies have investigated its impact on team performance. While the magnitude of home advantage can vary depending on a variety of factors, the evidence suggests that home teams do indeed have an advantage over away teams.